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burjwahzeh
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:22 pm    Post subject: 2012 Season Finish is Packed with Opportunity Reply with quote

If I'm reading the President's Cup series standings correctly, OMPL and LNF are the only events left to be contested. Andrew is going to net either 520 or 650 points for OMPL; Geoff R will get the other.

This means Andrew will max-out at 3140 points.

On to LNF,
Any points Ken gets will be offset by his low MOD accumulation of 375, but even including that, he's only going to need 325+375 = 700 points to catch Andrew. That's a 3rd place finish according to today's registration numbers, in which case Ken would pull ahead (813-375+2815 = 3253).

Geoff P will accumulate all of his points, so to catch Andrew he needs 640 points, which he can do with a 4th place or better finish.

Of note, Geoff will actually come out ahead of Ken with a tie, unless they tie in 8th place or worse, but there is no excitement in a finish like that, because Andrew would win as a result of that poor showing by Geoff and Ken.

The dark horse in all of this is Claus. He loses his 219 Ice Bowl points with a good finish at LNF. He's a mere 27 points behind Geoff P, and 342 behind Ken. A win would net him (2473-219+1300 =) 3554 points, and he needs (3140 - 2473 +219 = 886 pts, or) 2nd place to get ahead of Andrew. That win would put him ahead of Geoff P (who, if Geoff finished second, would get 2500+1040 = 3540 points) and Ken (2815-375+1040 = 3480) no matter what.

Next, Cyle at 2300pts will replace his 254 Oonie points. A win give him 2300-254+1300 = 3346, again enough points to catch Andrew, but not enough to stay ahead of Ken and Geoff should they get second place, so he's going to need help from the field to earn the trophy (a win puts him ahead of Claus no matter what happens to Claus).

Finally, Geoff R will get either 520 or 650 points for OMPL and in doing so, will wipe out his 350 TOSS points for 170 to 300 additional points. That gives him 2470 - 2600 points overall. His remaining points burden is 390 points at the plaid. A win gives him (2470|2600 - 390 + 1300 =) 3380 | 3510 pts, and again he will require help from the field, because 1st won't be enough points to pull ahead of Geoff P in 2nd, even if Geoff R wins OMPL as well.

Rob D is the only other person that could catch Andrew, but there's a lot that would have to go wrong with Ken, Geoff P, Claus, Cyle P, and Geoff R before he could claim the President's Cup. Stranger things have happened, though.

It'll be a great finish. Good luck, all!
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Last edited by burjwahzeh on Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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John Pytel
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the last 2 years where decided at LNF. She's a big one.
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burjwahzeh
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John Pytel wrote:
I think the last 2 years where decided at LNF. She's a big one.
Certainly! I'm not sure there have been 7 players in the running for the top prize, though.
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John Pytel
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The dynamics of the series keep getting better. Increased attendance and events appear to be making it better and better.
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andros
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 6:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow even if I get 1st in OMPL Penton still beats me by 10 PC points.

Way to go Geoff! thumbsup
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