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Paul Bourgeois
ODGC Tuesday Night Coordinator


Joined: 21 Aug 2005
Posts: 1687
Location: Ottawa, Ontario

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:52 pm    Post subject: A Review of Player Performance in 2007 Reply with quote

Where it is the goal of the Tuesday Ottawa Stroke play Series to provide equal opportunities to both experienced and learning players to find success at any event, a review of the 2007 season was warranted. The goal of this review was to determine if opportunities to win and share in the awards were shared across the spectrum of talent.

In performing the review, players with handicaps lower than 9 were binned together as "low handicap players" (LHP). Everyone else was considered a high handicap player (HHP). The following trends were noted:

HHPs won 12 of 18 adjusted score events.
LHPs won each CFDG Long Event (3), one CFDG Short Event (1), one JCP Blues Event (1), and one JCP Yellows Event (1).

LHPs won, on average, a 100% larger quarterback challenge purse than HHPs.
HHPs won, on average, a 100% larger adjusted score purse than LHPs.
Over the entire season, HHPs won, on average, a 30% larger awards share when compared to LHPs (adjusted scores and QB challenge combined).

Overall, a method of improving LHP competitiveness in adjusted score results is needed. Ideally, this method would see as many adjusted score LHP winners as HHP winners.

To date, the simplest proposal I've noted for accomplishing this is that used by the USGA. The USGA incorporates a "Quotient of Excellence" into their handicap calculations in an effort to provide LHPs with a greater competitive advantage in adjusted score formats. This adjustment removes a percentage from your handicap score prior to rounding. Players with large handicaps will see a larger chunk of their handicap removed than those with low handicaps (90% of 20 is 18; 90% of 2 is 1.8 ).

In analysing the winning results over the 2007 season and comparing the winning HHP score with the closest adjusted LHP score, it was noted that a Quotient of Excellence of 90% (or a reduction in handicap of 10%) would have led to LHPs winning 9 of the 18 events. The events where a shift in first place would occur were at JCP Yellow in all three cases.

At two other events, this adjustment would have seen ties between LHP and HHP players, or reduced the margin of victor to 0.1 strokes (the exact results were beyond the scope of this otherwise broad analysis). These events occurred at JCP Blue and CFDG Short respectively.

Considering that incorporation of an appropriately sized Quotient of Excellence would have such a profound effect on adjusted scores at any given course, this method will be introduced in the TOSS 2008 season.

Certain disclaimers need to be noted:
The 2007 season review includes 18 events played on two separate courses and having a total of four different layouts.
JCP Yellow was disproportionately represented (7 events). Next was JCP Blue (5 events). CFDG Longs and Shorts were played 3 times each (a total of 6 events at CFDG).

18 events does not represent a large enough statistical sample to be considered rigorous, but it is likely significant enough to provide an indication of trends that are well outside of normal (i.e. the confidence interval on the sample isn't high enough to draw solid conclusions, but it's good enough for our purposes).

Effects on payout spots other than first place were not considered.

Quotient of Excellence required to change winners for each round was calculated as follows:
QoE=(Score LHP - Score HHP) / (Handicap LHP - Handicap HHP)

The 3 QoEs required to see LHP wins = HHP wins were 0.968 (week 7); 0.915 (week 17); and 0.900 (week 13)

More details about the 2008 TOSS season will be released in the coming weeks.

Cheers!
-Paul

{Edit: changed "closest LHP score" to "closest adjusted LHP score" to provide added clarity.}


Last edited by Paul Bourgeois on Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:47 pm; edited 3 times in total
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OMR
ODGC Marketing


Joined: 02 Jun 2005
Posts: 3418
Location: Kanata

PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:01 pm    Post subject: Re: A Review of Player Performance in 2007 Reply with quote

Paul Bourgeois wrote:

the winning HHP score with the closest LHP score, Quotient of Excellence required to change winners for each round was calculated as follows:
QoE=(Score LHP - Score HHP) / (Handicap LHP - Handicap HHP)


just for clarity, so do you mean:

QoE= (lowest Score LHP - lowest Score HHP) / (Handicap lowest Score LHP - Handicap lowest Score HHP)

?
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Paul Bourgeois
ODGC Tuesday Night Coordinator


Joined: 21 Aug 2005
Posts: 1687
Location: Ottawa, Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

QoE was calculated when a HHP won the adjusted score event.
QoE was based on the score and handicap of the winner, and the score and the handicap of the nearest finishing LHP (in the adjusted score standings), but not necessarily the lowest scoring LHP.

On review, I see where the ambiguity is in the original post.

Considering all LHP scores and handicaps would be more rigorous (I sense this is where you're going with your review). Even more interesting would be a QoE analysis for all players at each event. If anyone would care to undertake such an analysis and report the findings, I'll be happy to utilize them.

A big thumbsup to you, OMR: I'm doing my best to avoid mistakes and glaring errors in the assumptions surrounding the model and the analysis. The only way to identify and correct any errors it is to analyse and understand the method. Don't hesitate to challenge anything that you find discomforting. Your feedback is always welcome.


Last edited by Paul Bourgeois on Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:57 am; edited 1 time in total
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BigBrotherPenton
King of Commentary


Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 10042
Location: watching the paint dry

PostPosted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 9:18 am    Post subject: Re: A Review of Player Performance in 2007 Reply with quote

OMR wrote:
Paul Bourgeois wrote:

the winning HHP score with the closest LHP score, Quotient of Excellence required to change winners for each round was calculated as follows:
QoE=(Score LHP - Score HHP) / (Handicap LHP - Handicap HHP)


just for clarity, so do you mean:

QoE= (lowest Score LHP - lowest Score HHP) / (Handicap lowest Score LHP - Handicap lowest Score HHP)

?


One sticker for you, Old Man!
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