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Paul Bourgeois
ODGC Tuesday Night Coordinator

Joined: 21 Aug 2005
Posts: 1687
Location: Ottawa, Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:13 pm    Post subject: A Minor Change in CF Long Course Handicap Reply with quote

If you are interested in how player handicaps are calculated, the following post is for you. If just the thought of having to talk statistics makes you ill, well, stop reading now.

For those of you that have been keeping a careful eye on the mathematics used to calculate player handicaps, I would like to highlight a small anomaly that I will be correcting by increasing the course handicap rating of the Camp Fortune Long course configuration that we used for TOSS season play.

The original rating was 51.0.
The new rating will be 51.4.

As you are aware, handicaps are calculated based on the average of the best 50% of your round differentials. Also, your net score should approximate the course handicap if you shoot a round that is pretty much ideal for your ability. You should play to your handicap value roughly 25% of the time, and on any given day, approximately 25% of the players participating in a round should score net scores that match or better the course handicap. As more rounds are recorded, it becomes easier to determine what the course handicap should be based on the scores submitted. There will always be variations for things such as weather or just plain old bad statistical karma, but once a sample of over 30 rounds is acquired, the results should begin to show any anomalies. One such anomaly exists with the score history for the Fortune long teepads.

35 scores exist for Camp Fortune longs, and as such about 8 of those net scores should be lower than the established course handicap of 51. In reality, only 6 have been so recorded. Altering the course handicap to 52 would see players (with their handicap unadjusted by the course handicap modification) recording 11 rounds under the course handicap (which is too many players). Adjusting the course handicap to about 2/5ths of the way between these extremes is prudent to balancing the statistics, and this adjustment will be made to all player handicaps for week 11. Those particularly math savy will point out that in a historical sense, adjusting the course rating would have skewed the handicaps used in calculating the net scores for the 2nd and 3rd rounds. This effect, while real, is negligible in magnitude for the change being made.

The adjustment will have the effect of lowering certain players' handicap averages (if you felt that you had a good round from the CF longs one week, chances are your average will be one of those that is actually effected), while only one person's player handicap will actually change as a result.

As a further aside, I will continue to monitor the course handicaps as the samples available become statistically significant. Notification will be given as alterations are made.

Last edited by Paul Bourgeois on Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:31 pm; edited 2 times in total
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