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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2016 11:18 am    Post subject: current player HC table Reply with quote

Player Handicaps following 2017 Plaid Jacket tournament.
updated October 6, 2017.

player HC

Adams, Mike 2.3
Ainsworth, Terry 12.9
Arsenault, Nicholas 5.1
Atos, Allysha 18.2
Atos, Mark 7.0
Beaudoin, Chris 5.7
Berenbaum, Matt 9.9
Bourgeois, Paul 13.1
Bourne, Chris 1.6
Briggs, Ryan 7.4
Clavel, Stephanie 14.4
Correia, Justin 6.5
Cox, Brenda 21.8
Darcovich, Ken 0.0
Dolliver, Dan 12.7
Doucette, Claude 21.3
Doucette, Rob 4.3
Duplisea, Danielle 8.8
Fiander, Trevor N/A
Fisher, Kyle 4.1
Foster, Neil 15.1
Goguen, Rick 7.8
Hale, Rob 14.0
Houle, Mario 4.4
James, Aaron 3.9
Joss, Jamie 13.3
Kauffmann, Andrew 9.0
King, Jason 12.9
Lane, Don 6.7
Lariviere, Jeff 4.7
Lepack, Jason 7.5
L'Esperance, Pat 0.0
McCormick, Mike 4.9
McDonald, Colin 3.6
Melan´┐Żon, Errol 9.2
Meldrum, Jeff 1.9
Milks, Dave N/A
Morrison, Chris 9.0
Oldford, Jared 3.7
Pegg, Larry 10.0
Penton, Geoff 0.0
Philips, Dan 3.4
Pike, Steve 0.0
Playfair, Joe 1.2
Prange, Cyle 2.1
Pytel, John 17.1
Racicot, Matt N/A
Reitlingshoefer, Claus 2.3
Rowland, Geoff 3.2
Schnobb, Gavin 7.3
Seguin, Serge 7.5
Sivyer, Stacie 13.3
Svetkoff, Ben 14.4
Vallee, Andrew 0.1
Vinet, Eric 1.1
Visser, Carl 0.0
Watson, Ryan 0.0
Wierdsma, Alex 2.2
Wormald, Rob 2.6


Last edited by Ken Darcovich on Fri May 04, 2018 9:00 pm; edited 48 times in total
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

full club handicaps at end of 2017 TOSS season:

player HC

Adams, Mike 2.4
Ainsworth, Terry 12.7
Arsenault, Nicholas 4.5
Atos, Allysha 18.2
Atos, Mark 7.0
Beaudoin, Chris 6.5
Belyea, Paul 5.6
Berenbaum, Matt 11.7
Bourgeois, Paul 13.1
Bourne, Chris 3.7
Briggs, Ryan 7.4
Brooks, Ian N/A
Burgoin, Chris 14.2
Castonguay, Chris 13.6
Clavel, Stephanie 14.4
Colantanio, Alessandro 11.2
Correia, Justin 6.5
Cox, Brenda 22.3
Crane, Steve 13.3
Crupi, Adam 19.2
Darcovich, Ken 0.0
DeCoste, Holly 12.4
Djokic, Drazen 16.5
Dobrev, Stefan 2.5
Dolliver, Dan 12.7
Doucette, Claude 21.3
Doucette, Mark 2.9
Doucette, Rob 4.3
Dowdell, Dwayne 10.5
Duplisea, Danielle 8.6
Earle, Mark 17.3
Englehardt, Charles 16.1
Everson, Clint 9.4
Fiander, Trevor N/A
Fisher, Kyle 4.1
Foster, Neil 16.5
Goguen, Rick 7.8
Gonzalez Rivera, Solomon N/A
Hale, Rob 14.3
Houle, Ben 10.1
Houle, Mario 4.5
James, Aaron 3.9
Joss, Jamie 13.3
Kauffmann, Andrew 9.1
Kilpatrick, Shane 2.4
King, Brian 10.6
King, Jason 12.6
Lane, Don 6.7
Lange, Ken 10.4
Lariviere, Jeff 4.7
Lebrun, Jon N/A
Lepack, Jason 7.5
L'Esperance, Pat 0.0
Lewis, Jeff 11.8
Little, Ken 6.9
McCormick, Luke 8.5
McCormick, Mike 4.9
McDonald, Colin 4.7
McDonald, Dylan 33.1
McLeod, David 7.6
Melanšon, Errol 9.2
Meldrum, Jeff 1.9
Milks, Dave N/A
Morrison, Chris 9.3
Oldford, Jared 3.7
Pegg, Larry 10.3
Pengelly, Arthur 4.1
Penton, Chris N/A
Penton, Geoff 0.1
Philips, Dan 3.4
Pike, Steve 0.0
Playfair, Joe 1.2
Prange, Cyle 2.1
Pytel, Cameron 37.8
Pytel, John 17.1
Racicot, Matt N/A
Reitlingshoefer, Claus 2.1
Rowland, Geoff 3.2
Schnobb, Gavin 7.3
Seguin, Serge 7.5
Silianu, Daniel N/A
Sivyer, Stacie 13.3
Svetkoff, Ben 14.4
Temple, Tonya 25.6
Vallee, Andrew 0.0
Vinet, Eric 1.0
Visser, Carl 0.0
Wallace, Kirk 14.0
Watson, Darrell N/A
Watson, Ryan 0.0
Weintrager, Kristina 28.7
Wierdsma, Alex 3.2
Wormald, Rob 2.7
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey ODGC,

Just to let everyone know that with the cold weekend we're experiencing,
rather than skiing, I'm staying in and beginning to code a program that
will digest the 2015, 2016 and 2017 DG season raw results in order to
reevaluate player handicaps, with the added feature of considering the
difficulty of the course being played.

The aim here is to remove some bias that we've all observed in the
payouts over the past 3 years; in brief, the easy courses favour the high
handicappers, while the harder courses favour the low handicappers.
Ideally, we'll see a more distributed mix of players cashing at all courses
should the program updates work as intended.

Just started the job today, with partial 2015 data, will keep everyone posted on the progress.

For those who wish to help with the algorithm evaluation and development,
the program is being done in C++. I will make it available to anyone who
wants a look, along with some instructions on its use.

Ken
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andros
ODGC Presidents Cup Champion


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Posts: 8487
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thumbsup
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

update:

I have written some code that is able to digest all 99 recorded rounds from the 2015, 2016 and 2017 seasons, and update HCs week by week.

In 2016, I changed the way I determined the scratch round score, to a simpler form from it's definition. In the code I've written, I use the updated scratch calculation, so what this program reports somewhat different HC values compared to the HCs determined in 2015. Because of this, the HCs going forward through 2016 and 2017 also differ slightly. This difference is most pronounced in earlier rounds. Since HCs are based on the 20 most recent rounds, the early stage discrepancies eventually disappear.

One change I'm presently implementing, even before trying to account for course difficulty, is how the system treats cases where a player reaches a zero HC. Previously, the HC was just allowed to bottom out at zero, without this change affecting the rest of the system. Looking at how it all works together, that old way allowed incoherent things to develop.

What I'm presently doing is something along these lines:

If a player say sitting at HC 0.2 for example, plays a strong round and the system calculates a new HC of -0.2, this update is now handled differently.

Previously, all we did was just set the HC at 0.

Now, we still set the HC to 0, but the set of differentials get adjusted (making them all a bit larger, in proportion to the -0.2 result) so that if recalculated, the HC would simply equal 0. As this gets applied to the low HC player, it also gets applied to the whole rest of the table, so that everyone backs up in HC by 0.2, and the data bank of differentials is adjusted to reflect the newly backed up HCs. Previously, we had a kind of mushy scratch round score standard, the updated way can have only one zero HC, and all other HCs get re-evaluated relative to it. This newer way in testing so far, makes it more demanding to shoot a scratch round. By pushing all HCs up, the scratch estimates get pushed lower.

more later...
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not quite ready to share the code, but again, to update,
here is an example of reworked HCs over the last 3 seasons, the
change here is that we use a hard zero rather than a soft zero,
and players are upshifted from the hard zero...

also, I removed a lot of names from our list, where the player has not
played a round in the past 3 years...

rank = 1 Watson_Ryan HC = 0 rounds played = 6
rank = 2 L'Esperance_Pat HC = 1.00539 rounds played = 4
rank = 3 Darcovich_Ken HC = 3.45314 rounds played = 90
rank = 4 Visser_Carl HC = 4.30456 rounds played = 51
rank = 5 Penton_Geoff HC = 4.64464 rounds played = 49
rank = 6 Kilpatrick_Shane HC = 4.78805 rounds played = 28
rank = 7 Pike_Steve HC = 5.06809 rounds played = 57
rank = 8 Prange_Cyle HC = 5.33272 rounds played = 32
rank = 9 Playfair_Joe HC = 6.7229 rounds played = 3
rank = 10 Oldford_Jared HC = 6.87629 rounds played = 17
rank = 11 Meldrum_Jeff HC = 6.90946 rounds played = 17
rank = 12 Vinet_Eric HC = 7.11554 rounds played = 34
rank = 13 Wierdsma_Alex HC = 7.49385 rounds played = 50
rank = 14 Wormald_Rob HC = 7.5709 rounds played = 20
rank = 15 Dobrev_Stefan HC = 7.8645 rounds played = 12
rank = 16 Vallee_Andrew HC = 7.92812 rounds played = 63
rank = 17 Reitlingshoefer_Claus HC = 8.05354 rounds played = 78
rank = 18 Adams_Mike HC = 8.08628 rounds played = 84
rank = 19 Rowland_Geoff HC = 8.39417 rounds played = 11
rank = 20 Philips_Dan HC = 8.59383 rounds played = 35
rank = 21 Doucette_Rob HC = 8.60263 rounds played = 22
rank = 22 Bourne_Chris HC = 8.62036 rounds played = 43
rank = 23 Little_Ken HC = 8.64617 rounds played = 10
rank = 24 James_Aaron HC = 8.86075 rounds played = 31
rank = 25 Lepack_Jason HC = 9.24617 rounds played = 13
rank = 26 McLeod_David HC = 9.34617 rounds played = 10
rank = 27 Pengelly_Arthur HC = 9.3709 rounds played = 16
rank = 28 McDonald_Colin HC = 9.71907 rounds played = 21
rank = 29 Arsenault_Nicholas HC = 9.78178 rounds played = 8
rank = 30 Fisher_Kyle HC = 10.8627 rounds played = 36
rank = 31 Lariviere_Jeff HC = 10.9924 rounds played = 50
rank = 32 Houle_Mario HC = 11.2845 rounds played = 41
rank = 33 McCormick_Mike HC = 11.5285 rounds played = 40
rank = 34 Landry_Chris HC = 11.9446 rounds played = 6
rank = 35 King_Brian HC = 12.3462 rounds played = 10
rank = 36 Atos_Mark HC = 12.3617 rounds played = 54
rank = 37 Briggs_Ryan HC = 12.4137 rounds played = 16
rank = 38 Correia_Justin HC = 12.4295 rounds played = 20
rank = 39 Schnobb_Gavin HC = 12.5103 rounds played = 20
rank = 40 Beaudoin_Chris HC = 12.5831 rounds played = 26
rank = 41 Morrison_Chris HC = 13.2157 rounds played = 20
rank = 42 Goguen_Rick HC = 13.2927 rounds played = 20
rank = 43 Lebrun_Jon HC = 13.492 rounds played = 8
rank = 44 Seguin_Serge HC = 13.5239 rounds played = 48
rank = 45 Lane_Don HC = 13.792 rounds played = 40
rank = 46 Kauffmann_Andrew HC = 14.3453 rounds played = 30
rank = 47 Melanšon_Errol HC = 14.5468 rounds played = 23
rank = 48 McCormick_Luke HC = 15.4424 rounds played = 21
rank = 49 Pegg_Larry HC = 15.4696 rounds played = 22
rank = 50 Dowdell_Dwayne HC = 15.7709 rounds played = 12
rank = 51 Lange_Ken HC = 15.7709 rounds played = 15
rank = 52 Burgoin_Chris HC = 15.9462 rounds played = 10
rank = 53 DeCoste_Holly HC = 16.1573 rounds played = 11
rank = 54 Colantanio_Alessandro HC = 16.4709 rounds played = 12
rank = 55 Dolliver_Dan HC = 16.4791 rounds played = 15
rank = 56 Berenbaum_Matt HC = 16.7594 rounds played = 26
rank = 57 Houle_Ben HC = 16.8269 rounds played = 18
rank = 58 Svetkoff_Ben HC = 17.7705 rounds played = 22
rank = 59 Duplisea_Danielle HC = 17.773 rounds played = 9
rank = 60 St-Louis_Ron HC = 18.0709 rounds played = 12
rank = 61 Bourgeois_Paul HC = 18.1724 rounds played = 20
rank = 62 Masters_Arthur HC = 18.3763 rounds played = 18
rank = 63 Sivyer_Stacie HC = 18.4386 rounds played = 22
rank = 64 Joss_Jamie HC = 19.2821 rounds played = 52
rank = 65 Hale_Rob HC = 19.3737 rounds played = 46
rank = 66 Wallace_Kirk HC = 19.8606 rounds played = 10
rank = 67 King_Jason HC = 20.0762 rounds played = 17
rank = 68 Ainsworth_Terry HC = 20.3006 rounds played = 12
rank = 69 Foster_Neil HC = 20.5448 rounds played = 13
rank = 70 Pytel_John HC = 20.9434 rounds played = 16
rank = 71 Englehardt_Charles HC = 21.9709 rounds played = 12
rank = 72 Clavel_Stephanie HC = 22.7803 rounds played = 41
rank = 73 Laraby_Stephanie HC = 24.5836 rounds played = 6
rank = 74 Atos_Allysha HC = 25.5367 rounds played = 45
rank = 75 Earle_Mark HC = 25.5876 rounds played = 15
rank = 76 Doucette_Claude HC = 26.5709 rounds played = 11
rank = 77 Cox_Brenda HC = 27.6148 rounds played = 41
rank = 78 Brewster_Nicolas HC = 28.3709 rounds played = 12
rank = 79 Weintrager_Kristina HC = 31.0266 rounds played = 14
rank = 80 Manser_Diane HC = 33.7323 rounds played = 8
rank = 81 Pytel_Cameron HC = 39.5462 rounds played = 10
rank = 82 McDonald_Dylan HC = 42.0081 rounds played = 3
rank = 83 Temple_Tonya HC = 45.2903 rounds played = 3
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King Geoffrey


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These look better. Nice work, Darco.
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

more tweaks.

You may have noticed Pat L'Esperance's red-hot CF Long round from the 2017 Goat gave him a sub-scratch differential, with a total of 4 rounds played. In Pat's case, with only 4 rounds, his HC was defined by single best round.

In cases such as that, I made the following adjustment:

If a player has less than 20 rounds (where top 10 are used for HC), I scaled the impact of the differential correction by a factor proportional to the number of differentials used in the particular HC determination. So in this case, with only one differential used, only 10% of the impact of this round was imparted to the field. Viewed another way, if someone had a full slate of differentials, and shot sub-scratch, the impact of that latest sub-scratch round would be combined with the 9 other top differentials, so roughly 10% of its value would impact the field.

started on course stats. below is a list of the round stats from the various courses. I determined a course reference score value by taking the top 5 raw scores from the round. To account for different course difficulties, my concept is to normalize everything to a reference score of 54, and apply a factor. Going forward the HC will be based on differentials normalized to a ref. score of 54. For each TOSS round then, the adjusted score will be determined as (raw - HC*course_factor). So, for harder courses, a larger adjustment is made, and it scales according to the magnitude of the HC.

below are some reference data for the various courses:

course :: alc hosted 6 rounds. Reference score = 58.2667 HC factor = 1.07901

course :: shr hosted 8 rounds. Reference score = 52.125 HC factor = 0.965278

course :: kan hosted 8 rounds. Reference score = 48.35 HC factor = 0.89537

course :: cfs hosted 11 rounds. Reference score = 52.3636 HC factor = 0.969697

course :: cfl hosted 15 rounds. Reference score = 59 HC factor = 1.09259

course :: mtn hosted 8 rounds. Reference score = 57.5 HC factor = 1.06481

course :: evm hosted 4 rounds. Reference score = 63 HC factor = 1.16667

course :: evp hosted 2 rounds. Reference score = 72.1 HC factor = 1.33519

course :: k27 hosted 3 rounds. Reference score = 70.7333 HC factor = 1.30988

course :: cfb hosted 4 rounds. Reference score = 55.4 HC factor = 1.02593

course :: cal hosted 6 rounds. Reference score = 59.9 HC factor = 1.10926

course :: cas hosted 0 rounds. Reference score = 56.2 HC factor = 1.04074
** kludge: reference rounds never occur at Canadian short tees, based on estimated diff. from yellow tees

course :: alm hosted 5 rounds. Reference score = 53.08 HC factor = 0.982963

course :: mnb hosted 2 rounds. Reference score = 65.2 HC factor = 1.20741

course :: evn hosted 4 rounds. Reference score = 54.7 HC factor = 1.01296

course :: mt9 hosted 2 rounds. Reference score = 57.3 HC factor = 1.06111


still a work in progress, need to do more work with the code before I make it available to people. not too long from now I hope.
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
Posts: 2738
Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

here are updated HCs, taking course difficulty into account:
This should be considered just a draft update.

rank = 1 Watson_Ryan HC = 0 rounds played = 6
rank = 2 Darcovich_Ken HC = 0.338414 rounds played = 90
rank = 3 L'Esperance_Pat HC = 3.4368 rounds played = 4
rank = 4 Visser_Carl HC = 3.7696 rounds played = 51
rank = 5 Pike_Steve HC = 3.8229 rounds played = 57
rank = 6 Vinet_Eric HC = 4.15816 rounds played = 34
rank = 7 Penton_Geoff HC = 4.36678 rounds played = 49
rank = 8 Vallee_Andrew HC = 5.02612 rounds played = 63
rank = 9 Bourne_Chris HC = 5.92953 rounds played = 43
rank = 10 Meldrum_Jeff HC = 6.23736 rounds played = 17
rank = 11 Wormald_Rob HC = 6.85963 rounds played = 20
rank = 12 Reitlingshoefer_Claus HC = 6.93527 rounds played = 78
rank = 13 Wierdsma_Alex HC = 6.99721 rounds played = 50
rank = 14 Adams_Mike HC = 7.39751 rounds played = 84
rank = 15 James_Aaron HC = 7.41706 rounds played = 31
rank = 16 Philips_Dan HC = 7.46517 rounds played = 35
rank = 17 McCormick_Mike HC = 8.19641 rounds played = 40
rank = 18 Prange_Cyle HC = 8.46281 rounds played = 32
rank = 19 Arsenault_Nicholas HC = 8.5001 rounds played = 8
rank = 20 Playfair_Joe HC = 8.60229 rounds played = 3
rank = 21 McDonald_Colin HC = 8.76284 rounds played = 21
rank = 22 Kilpatrick_Shane HC = 8.76372 rounds played = 28
rank = 23 Fisher_Kyle HC = 9.07471 rounds played = 36
rank = 24 Oldford_Jared HC = 9.22712 rounds played = 7
rank = 25 Landry_Chris HC = 9.36763 rounds played = 6
rank = 26 Beaudoin_Chris HC = 9.39986 rounds played = 26
rank = 27 Lariviere_Jeff HC = 9.40454 rounds played = 50
rank = 28 Correia_Justin HC = 9.52386 rounds played = 20
rank = 29 Lane_Don HC = 9.95127 rounds played = 40
rank = 30 Lebrun_Jon HC = 10.1531 rounds played = 8
rank = 31 Goguen_Rick HC = 10.3694 rounds played = 20
rank = 32 Houle_Mario HC = 10.3799 rounds played = 41
rank = 33 Dobrev_Stefan HC = 10.3985 rounds played = 12
rank = 34 Rowland_Geoff HC = 10.9945 rounds played = 11
rank = 35 Doucette_Rob HC = 11.1664 rounds played = 22
rank = 36 Atos_Mark HC = 11.5662 rounds played = 54
rank = 37 McCormick_Luke HC = 11.5746 rounds played = 21
rank = 38 Pengelly_Arthur HC = 11.8886 rounds played = 16
rank = 39 Kauffmann_Andrew HC = 12.648 rounds played = 30
rank = 40 Morrison_Chris HC = 12.9517 rounds played = 20
rank = 41 Melanšon_Errol HC = 13.7027 rounds played = 23
rank = 42 Berenbaum_Matt HC = 14.184 rounds played = 26
rank = 43 Schnobb_Gavin HC = 14.5628 rounds played = 20
rank = 44 Pegg_Larry HC = 14.6316 rounds played = 22
rank = 45 Little_Ken HC = 14.7149 rounds played = 10
rank = 46 Seguin_Serge HC = 15.0331 rounds played = 48
rank = 47 Lange_Ken HC = 15.0596 rounds played = 15
rank = 48 Duplisea_Danielle HC = 15.0709 rounds played = 9
rank = 49 Briggs_Ryan HC = 15.1749 rounds played = 16
rank = 50 Lepack_Jason HC = 15.3149 rounds played = 13
rank = 51 McLeod_David HC = 15.4149 rounds played = 10
rank = 52 Masters_Arthur HC = 15.6808 rounds played = 18
rank = 53 Houle_Ben HC = 15.7259 rounds played = 18
rank = 54 Hale_Rob HC = 16.8428 rounds played = 46
rank = 55 Svetkoff_Ben HC = 16.8614 rounds played = 22
rank = 56 King_Jason HC = 17.7007 rounds played = 17
rank = 57 Ainsworth_Terry HC = 17.973 rounds played = 12
rank = 58 Joss_Jamie HC = 18.0756 rounds played = 52
rank = 59 Clavel_Stephanie HC = 18.1636 rounds played = 41
rank = 60 Dowdell_Dwayne HC = 18.3149 rounds played = 12
rank = 61 King_Brian HC = 18.4149 rounds played = 10
rank = 62 Foster_Neil HC = 18.7304 rounds played = 13
rank = 63 Wallace_Kirk HC = 18.9036 rounds played = 10
rank = 64 Dolliver_Dan HC = 19.0096 rounds played = 15
rank = 65 Colantanio_Alessandro HC = 19.0149 rounds played = 12
rank = 66 DeCoste_Holly HC = 19.092 rounds played = 11
rank = 67 Pytel_John HC = 19.4312 rounds played = 16
rank = 68 Laraby_Stephanie HC = 19.7602 rounds played = 6
rank = 69 St-Louis_Ron HC = 20.5436 rounds played = 12
rank = 70 Sivyer_Stacie HC = 20.7046 rounds played = 22
rank = 71 Bourgeois_Paul HC = 20.8783 rounds played = 20
rank = 72 Burgoin_Chris HC = 22.0149 rounds played = 10
rank = 73 Cox_Brenda HC = 23.8813 rounds played = 41
rank = 74 Atos_Allysha HC = 23.9935 rounds played = 45
rank = 75 Englehardt_Charles HC = 24.5149 rounds played = 12
rank = 76 Earle_Mark HC = 27.0036 rounds played = 15
rank = 77 Doucette_Claude HC = 29.1149 rounds played = 11
rank = 78 Weintrager_Kristina HC = 29.5242 rounds played = 14
rank = 79 Brewster_Nicolas HC = 30.9149 rounds played = 12
rank = 80 Manser_Diane HC = 33.1118 rounds played = 8
rank = 81 Pytel_Cameron HC = 45.6149 rounds played = 10
rank = 82 McDonald_Dylan HC = 47.6952 rounds played = 3
rank = 83 Temple_Tonya HC = 47.8871 rounds played = 3
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
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Location: Ottawa

PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

confirming that we have a bias, here is a graphic showing the fraction of rounds a person cashed at TOSS vs their HC. If the system had zero bias, the points would be a formless blob. In the graphic, there is a general observable trend that with a higher HC, the player cashed in a higher percentage of rounds.

In testing of model updates, I will use a kind of graphic like this to guide how to adjust some parameters. One idea to start with is to apply a stretch or an exponent to the course factor. Factors above one will get corrected even more, those under one will get even less correction. We'll see how it goes.









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Ken Darcovich
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This was too easy !!

this next graphic shows the cashing trend with simulated results over the past 3 seasons with the hard zero and the course difficulty factor applied to the HC system. The regression slope is now very slightly favouring the low HCs !!

It's curious to look at as well. The red dots are the simulated data, the blue ones were the real results. Some dots are easy to trace, and the HC changes as well as the fraction winning changes can be seen.

I am surprised that the bias was corrected to this degree on the first trial. Anyhow, at this point, it looks good, so I will shift my work to tidying up the code, making it readable and then making it available to anyone who wants to test it. Stay tuned.


.

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King Geoffrey


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Probably the most interesting thread on the Forum in years.
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radapaw
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fantastic stuff, Ken!
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Ken Darcovich
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Joined: 14 Jun 1999
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

update:

I took a break from this for a while, but got back to the code and tidied
it up, added a lot of comments to explain details, improved readability,
and made a ReadMe file on code use etc.

The code is written in C++. As a disclaimer, let me add that my
introduction to coding was in 1980, with mainframe FORTRAN entered
on punch cards.

I have it all bundled into a .rar, compressed to a compact 15 kB.

If you would like to have this code to validate, test, play with,
remodel etc., you are more than welcome to request a copy.
I'll email them out to those who ask for it.

.
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julz
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Ken, This was an awesome read today!

Send me over the code and I'll give it a read.

Colin
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Ken Darcovich
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks Colin.

I emailed you the bundle a short while ago.
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lissyssil
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ken, are the January 24 posts related to course correction factor and revised handicaps still accurate?
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Ken Darcovich
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lissyssil wrote:
Ken, are the January 24 posts related to course correction factor and revised handicaps still accurate?


Yes.
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lissyssil
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ken Darcovich wrote:
lissyssil wrote:
Ken, are the January 24 posts related to course correction factor and revised handicaps still accurate?


Yes.


Wicked! Thanks!
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clausr
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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ken, which set of handycaps are we using moving forward. The last ones are labelled draft???

Thanks
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